I have no knocks on Exaggerator. He is my second choice. Lani is my third choice, and he is another that has had peculiar but under-the-radar good trips in both his Derby and Preakness runs. He obviously can run all day, but whether he can fast all day is the question.
Barbara Bowley , co-founder of the horseracing tournament website The Tournament Edge :. Or it may not. A jockey--Kent Desormeaux on favorite Exaggerator--came out of an alcohol rehab program earlier in the week to ride the race.
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What is going on? Well, my take on this uncommonly dramatic Belmont is to throw out all the common wisdom. I say no. It will be his jockey.
Bottom line: There is money to be made in this Belmont. And it also doesn't hurt that he has enough tactical speed to lay closer than all the deep, one-run closers, who will be extremely compromised by their decided lack of speed.
source site With that being said, or so doesn't really entice, regardless of who the main protagonists are. The problem is that if Exaggerator doesn't win, then basically anyone else can, and if anyone else can win, they certainly can run third or fourth, too. And in the Belmont, quite often craziness does ensue. Jockey Kent Desormeaux rides Exaggerator onto the track before a training session prior to the th The big question mark is Exaggerator.
He's run three bang-up performances in a row - can he continue? I'll take a shot against, albeit while acknowledging that Exaggerator is clearly the one to beat. My top pick: Destin. He should sit in a good stalking position just behind former barnmate Gettysburg and might get first jump at the top of the stretch. Creator is almost always up against it with his come-from-the-clouds running style, but if Gettysburg does offer up a legitimate pace, Creator might be a player in the homestretch at a decent price.
Exaggerator in the third spot, which, as noted, might be folly.
If he can string another good performance, he has a pretty clear edge on almost all of his competition in here. Lani gets in the mix. I played around with him a little bit in the Derby and Preakness at long odds; I can't abandon him now, given that the odds should continue to be attractive and the workout reports seem improved. Associated Press.
This year's Belmont Stakes doesn't have a Triple Crown at stake, and it doesn't have much in the way of seasoned horses, indicating an opportunity for windfall profits in the exotic pools. Spinoff, despite his odds on the morning line, looks like a winner and is, in this writer's opinion, the key horse for the trifecta and superfecta. Toss out his Kentucky Derby performance in the slop and instead focus on his career-high Brisnet speed figure in the Louisiana Derby -- it is just one tick shy of par for the Belmont Stakes.
Sir Winston has also shown he is fast enough to contend Brisnet speed figure in the Peter Pan Stakes. In addition, lightly-raced Intrepid Heart has come close to par in his last race 96 Brisnet speed figure in the Peter Pan Stakes, his third career start despite stumbling at the start and getting bumped later in the race. All three horses are solid building blocks at the top of your trifecta or superfecta ticket.
Plus, future Belmont winners, and a vast majority of those that finish in the money, inherit between two and three times as much speed than stamina from their pedigree, expressed as a dosage index -- a numerical expression of a horse's pedigree first published in the Daily Racing Form in -- between 2.
For example, since , half of the runners entered in the Belmont Stakes had a dosage index between 2. Here are the five horses in this race with the optimum dosage index around which to build the top part of trifecta and superfecta tickets: Bourbon War, Intrepid Heart, Master Fencer, Sir Winston and Spinoff.
He's out of a Touch Gold mare. Touch Gold won the Belmont. He's a half to Commissioner [second in the Belmont]. There's a lot of Belmont history supporting his pedigree.
And, out of the three Triple Crown races, I think pedigree plays the biggest role in this one. Bourbon War could benefit from the addition of Joevia, an early front-runner, although it is not a given the son of Shanghai Bobby will try to go wire-to-wire. Joevia's trainer, Gregg Sacco, said his intent in the Long Branch Stakes was to have Joevia come off the pace but the sloppy track, which favors early speed, changed his strategy.
Joevia did come off the pace in his first career race, a maiden win at Monmouth Park, but that, too, was in the slop.